Islam Makhachev vs Arman Tsarukyan
Prediction: Islam Makhachev via Decision
This rematch feels like a completely different fight from their first meeting. Both fighters have evolved so much since their initial clash that it’s almost unfair to compare them directly to the versions of themselves that stepped into the cage in 2019. Back then, it was a razor-close grappling war that showcased Tsarukyan’s incredible potential and Makhachev’s elite skill set. Fast forward to now, and we’re looking at two of the most well-rounded lightweights in the world.
Makhachev has refined his game to near perfection, becoming a dominant force in the division. His grappling is still the backbone of his success, with suffocating top pressure, smooth transitions, and the ability to finish fights with submissions or ground-and-pound. What’s elevated Makhachev to championship status, though, is how he’s developed his striking. His stand-up is no longer just a tool to set up takedowns—it’s a legitimate weapon. His kicks are sharp, his counters are precise, and his composure on the feet makes him dangerous in striking exchanges. However, his recent performances against Dustiin Poirier raised some questions. While he ultimately won, he struggled to manage his energy, particularly in the later rounds, and seemed to underestimate the difficulty of the challenge in front of him. That borderline overconfidence made the fight much harder than it needed to be, and against someone as skilled as Tsarukyan, that kind of mindset could be costly.
Tsarukyan, on the other hand, has skyrocketed in terms of skill and confidence since their first fight. His grappling, which was already elite, has only gotten better, and he’s added layers to his game that make him a much more complete fighter. Tsarukyan’s ability to scramble, chain takedowns, and stay dangerous in transitions makes him a nightmare for anyone in the division. But it’s his striking that has seen the biggest leap forward. He’s now a dynamic striker with excellent footwork, sharp combinations, and a deep gas tank to keep the pace high. Tsarukyan’s evolution has made him a fighter who can win fights anywhere, and his ability to adapt on the fly makes him a tough matchup for Makhachev.
The key to this fight lies in the grappling exchanges. Makhachev’s ability to control opponents on the ground is second to none, but Tsarukyan’s scrambling ability and defensive wrestling make him one of the few fighters who can hang in those positions. The question is whether Tsarukyan can keep the fight standing long enough to test Makhachev’s cardio and striking defense. Makhachev’s striking has improved, but Tsarukyan’s speed and ability to mix in kicks and punches seamlessly could give him an edge on the feet. If Tsarukyan can stay disciplined and avoid getting stuck under Makhachev, this fight becomes very competitive.
That said, Makhachev is still the probable winner. His experience in five-round fights, ability to dictate the pace, and well-rounded skill set make him a tough puzzle to solve. However, at -410 odds, he’s not worth the bet. His last fight showed that he’s not invincible, and if he comes in overconfident or mismanages his energy again, Tsarukyan has the tools to capitalize. Tsarukyan might be the closest thing to Makhachev’s equal in the division, and while Makhachev should be the favorite, this fight has the potential to be far closer than the odds suggest.
Merab Dvalishvilli vs Umar Nurmagomedov
Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov via Decision
Both fighters bring high-level wrestling and contrasting styles to the table. This is the kind of matchup that showcases the evolution of MMA, with two relentless athletes pushing the boundaries of pace, technique, and strategy. While Merab’s insane cardio and relentless pressure have overwhelmed most of his opponents, Umar’s calculated and efficient approach makes him the rightful favorite here.
Merab’s wrestling is all about volume and pace. He doesn’t just shoot for one takedown—he chains them together in an endless loop, forcing his opponents to constantly defend and scramble. What makes him unique is that he doesn’t necessarily care if you get back up. In fact, he almost invites it, using your escape as an opportunity to drag you back down and rack up control time. This grind-it-out style is exhausting for most fighters, but it also has a key flaw: the space he allows during transitions. Against someone like Umar, that space is a problem. Umar’s wrestling isn’t about relentless pace—it’s about precision and control. When he takes you down, he doesn’t let you back up. He locks you in, methodically working his way to dominant positions and smothering you with top pressure. Merab’s chaotic style thrives on creating scrambles, but Umar’s discipline and ability to shut down transitions will neutralize that chaos.
On the feet, the striking advantage leans heavily in Umar’s favor. His speed, fluidity, and ability to mix in feints and head movement make him a nightmare to hit cleanly. Umar’s striking isn’t just flashy—it’s functional. He uses his kicks to manage range, his hands to punish openings, and his constant movement to stay one step ahead of his opponent. Merab’s striking, while effective in setting up his wrestling, has some glaring vulnerabilities. He does a great job of using his hands to open up kicks and vice versa, but his head positioning is a liability. He keeps his head high and on the centerline, which makes him hittable, especially against someone with Umar’s precision. If Merab overextends or gets predictable in his striking setups, Umar will capitalize with counters and keep him guessing.
The difference in their approaches is what makes this fight so intriguing. Merab’s high pace and willingness to engage in scrambles have worked against most opponents, but against someone as calculated and efficient as Umar, that style could backfire. Umar’s ability to control the fight, both on the feet and on the ground, will force Merab into uncomfortable positions where his usual game plan won’t be as effective. Merab thrives in chaos, but Umar doesn’t allow chaos—he controls the narrative of the fight, whether it’s with his striking or his grappling.
Jiri Prochazka vs Jamahal Hill
Prediction: Jamahal Hill via Decision
When you break it down, Hill’s slick, technical striking and composure give him a clear edge, especially against someone as wild and hittable as Jiri.
Jiri is chaos personified. His striking is unorthodox, unpredictable, and ridiculously powerful. He throws punches, elbows, and kicks from angles that most fighters wouldn’t even think of, and his ability to generate knockout power in unconventional situations is a massive weapon. Jiri thrives in chaos—he’ll bait opponents into wild exchanges where his creativity and raw power can take over. But that chaos comes at a cost. Defensively, Jiri is wide open. He keeps his hands low, his head is often on the centerline, and he relies on his chin and recovery to get him through dicey moments. Against someone as sharp and precise as Hill, that’s a recipe for trouble.
Hill, on the other hand, is the definition of slick. His striking is clean, technical, and efficient. He doesn’t waste energy or throw unnecessary shots—everything he does is calculated. Hill’s jab is a major weapon, and he uses it to control range and set up his power shots. His ability to mix up his attacks—targeting the head, body, and legs—keeps opponents guessing, and his composure under pressure is one of his biggest strengths. Hill doesn’t get drawn into unnecessary brawls; he sticks to his game plan and punishes mistakes. That kind of discipline is exactly what you need to deal with someone as unpredictable as Jiri.
The biggest factor in this fight is Hill’s ability to capitalize on Jiri’s defensive lapses. Jiri’s hittability isn’t just a small flaw—it’s a glaring hole in his game, and Hill has the precision and power to exploit it. While Jiri’s wild style can catch opponents off guard, it also leaves him open to counters, and Hill’s ability to stay calm and pick his shots makes him dangerous in those moments. If Hill can keep the fight at his range and avoid getting drawn into Jiri’s chaotic exchanges, he has the tools to pick Jiri apart and potentially finish him.
That said, you can never count Jiri out. His knockout power is real, and his willingness to take risks makes him a constant threat. He’s the kind of fighter who can be losing every second of a fight and still find a way to end it with one perfectly timed strike. Hill will need to stay sharp and disciplined for as long as the fight lasts because any lapse in focus could give Jiri the opening he needs to land something devastating.
Kevin Holland vs Reinier De Ridder
Prediction: Reiner De Ridder via Submission
This is a fight where each man’s strengths are perfectly positioned to exploit the other’s weaknesses, making it as much about execution as it is about game planning.
Holland is one of the most creative and unorthodox strikers in the game. He’s long, rangy, and unpredictable, with a knack for landing shots from angles that opponents don’t see coming. His speed and precision make him a nightmare in striking exchanges, and his ability to mix in kicks, elbows, and knees keeps opponents guessing. However, his biggest issue has always been dealing with high-level grapplers, especially at middleweight. Fighters who can close the distance, take him down, and control him have historically given him fits, and that’s where De Ridder comes in.
De Ridder is a grappling machine. He’s a specialist in the truest sense of the word, with an incredible ability to close the distance, secure takedowns, and dominate on the mat. What makes De Ridder so effective is his size and strength—he’s a massive middleweight who uses his frame to bully opponents in clinch and grappling exchanges. Once the fight hits the ground, it’s his world. De Ridder’s top control is suffocating, and his ability to transition between submissions and dominant positions makes him a constant threat. Whether it’s sinking in a rear-naked choke, locking up an arm-triangle, or grinding opponents out with relentless pressure, De Ridder’s ground game is elite.
The key to this fight is De Ridder’s ability to absorb punishment to close the distance. Holland’s striking advantage is undeniable—he’s faster, more technical, and far more dangerous on the feet. If this fight stays standing for any significant amount of time, Holland will likely pick De Ridder apart with his range and creativity. But De Ridder has shown time and time again that he can eat a shot to get inside. Holland’s history against strong grapplers, especially at middleweight, doesn’t inspire confidence. Fighters like Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori have exposed his struggles with defending takedowns and getting back to his feet, and De Ridder’s grappling is arguably even more suffocating.
For Holland to win, he’ll need to use his range and footwork to keep De Ridder at bay, landing clean shots and forcing him to respect the power and speed coming his way. But De Ridder’s size and commitment to his game plan make that a tall order. He’s the type of fighter who doesn’t get discouraged by eating a few shots if it means dragging the fight into his world. Once De Ridder gets his hands on Holland, the size difference and grappling gap will be hard to overcome.
Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano
Prediction: Renato Moicano via Decision
This is a high-stakes clash between two of the most dangerous and unpredictable fighters in the lightweight division. Both guys bring unique skill sets that make this matchup a chess match with chaos sprinkled in, and it’s all about who can impose their game first. Dariush’s relentless, car-crash style is built on chaos and pressure, while Moicano’s elite jiu-jitsu and sniper-like striking give him a level of precision and control that’s hard to deal with.
Dariush is the definition of controlled chaos. He thrives in messy exchanges, where his ability to push forward and overwhelm opponents can break their rhythm. His striking isn’t textbook, but it’s effective—he throws heavy shots from awkward angles, and his willingness to take one to land one often leads to dramatic moments. However, the downside to his style is that it leaves openings. His aggressive approach can sometimes lead to him overextending or putting himself in bad positions, especially against someone as sharp and calculated as Moicano.
Moicano, on the other hand, is a technician. On the feet, he’s a sniper—his striking is precise, measured, and efficient. He uses his reach well, keeping opponents at the end of his punches and mixing in devastating leg kicks. What makes Moicano dangerous is how he blends his striking with his grappling. His jiu-jitsu is world-class, and he doesn’t rely on traditional wrestling to get fights to the ground. Instead, he uses trips, body locks, and transitions to drag opponents into his world. Once he’s on top, his control is suffocating. He doesn’t just look to hold position—he’s constantly advancing, looking for submissions or landing effective ground-and-pound.
The key to this fight lies in how their styles clash. Dariush’s chaotic pressure can overwhelm fighters who aren’t prepared to deal with his pace, but Moicano’s composure and ability to stay disciplined under fire make him a tough puzzle to crack. On the ground, Dariush is a handful for most lightweights, but Moicano’s jiu-jitsu is on another level. The way Moicano uses his grappling isn’t about traditional wrestling control—it’s about fluidity and technique. If he gets Dariush to the ground, it’s not just about holding him there; it’s about chaining submissions and keeping him stuck in positions where he can’t create space to scramble.
Dariush’s best path to victory is to turn this fight into a brawl, force Moicano into uncomfortable exchanges, and test his durability. But that’s easier said than done. Moicano’s striking is sharp enough to punish Dariush’s forward pressure, and his ability to mix in takedowns from unconventional setups could be the X-factor. If Moicano can get on top, it’s going to be a long night for Dariush. Moicano’s top control and submission threat make it incredibly difficult for opponents to get back to their feet, and Dariush’s tendency to embrace chaos could lead to him making a mistake that Moicano capitalizes on.
Rinya Nakamura vs Muin Gafarov
Prediction: Rinya Nakamura via Decision
This match up pits Nakamura’s elite wrestling pedigree against Gafurov’s dynamic striking and submission arsenal. Both fighters bring a lot to the table, but the key to this fight lies in Nakamura’s ability to impose his wrestling game and whether Gafurov can find a way to keep the fight standing or create scrambles.
Nakamura is a beast when it comes to wrestling. His background as a U23 World Champion in freestyle wrestling gives him a level of control and explosiveness that’s hard to match. He doesn’t just shoot for takedowns—he chains them together beautifully, constantly adjusting until he gets his opponent to the mat. Once he’s on top, he’s suffocating. His ability to control position while landing ground-and-pound is relentless, and he’s shown he can maintain that pressure for as long as the fight lasts. What makes Nakamura especially dangerous is his transition into MMA. He’s not just a wrestler anymore—he’s developed a striking game that, while not as polished as his grappling, is powerful and effective enough to set up his takedowns.
Gafurov, on the other hand, is a dangerous and versatile fighter. His striking is his standout weapon, featuring powerful kicks, spinning techniques, and sharp counters. He’s unpredictable and explosive, which makes him a constant threat on the feet. However, Gafurov’s biggest weakness has been his takedown defense and that’s a glaring issue when facing someone like Nakamura, who excels at dictating where the fight takes place.
The matchup heavily favors Nakamura because of his ability to neutralize Gafurov’s strengths. Gafurov’s striking is dangerous, but it’s hard to land clean shots when you’re constantly worried about getting taken down. Nakamura’s pressure and ability to close the distance quickly will likely make it difficult for Gafurov to find his rhythm. Even if Gafurov tries to attack with submissions off his back, Nakamura’s top control and positional awareness should allow him to avoid danger and stay in dominant positions.
For Gafurov to have a chance, he needs to either land something big early or find a way to keep the fight standing long enough to exploit Nakamura’s still-developing striking defense. His unpredictability on the feet could create opportunities, but those moments will be fleeting if Nakamura gets into his groove. On the flip side, Nakamura’s game plan is straightforward but incredibly effective: close the distance, take Gafurov down, and grind him out.
Jailton Almeida vs Sergei Spivac
Prediction: Jailton Almeida via Decision
Jailton Almeida vs. Serghei Spivac is a dream matchup for fans of high-level grappling. Both guys are absolute technicians on the mat, but they go about their work in different ways, which makes this fight so compelling. Almeida’s game is all about athleticism, explosiveness, and overwhelming control. When he gets on top, it’s like a boa constrictor tightening its grip—he’s methodical, but he doesn’t waste time. Spivac, on the other hand, brings a more traditional grappling style, leaning on his judo background and a calculated approach to break opponents down and dominate positionally. Both guys excel at manipulating their opponents’ bodies, using leverage, weight distribution, and elite technique to control the fight.
Almeida’s grappling is a force of nature. Once he gets a takedown, it’s almost inevitable that he’ll pass to a dominant position. His ability to chain submissions and transitions is next-level, and he doesn’t just control you—he’s actively hunting for the finish. What sets Almeida apart is his athleticism. He’s explosive in scrambles, and his strength allows him to bully even bigger opponents, which is rare in the heavyweight division. His ground game is suffocating, and once he locks in a position, he doesn’t let you breathe.
Spivac’s grappling is no joke either. His judo base makes him dangerous in clinch situations, where he’s excellent at using trips and throws to bring the fight to the mat. Once there, he’s a master at grinding opponents down. Spivac doesn’t rush—he’ll secure control, land effective ground-and-pound, and wear you out before looking for a submission. His ability to neutralize explosive fighters has been key to his success, and he’s shown that he can stick to a game plan and execute it over the course of a fight.
The grappling battle here is fascinating because both guys are so good at what they do. Almeida might have the edge in pure explosiveness and athleticism, but Spivac’s methodical approach could frustrate him if he can force extended grappling exchanges.
Where this fight might ultimately be decided is in the striking. And while neither guy is known for their stand-up, Almeida’s athleticism and sharpness give him an edge here. He’s shown glimpses of power and precision in his striking, even though he hasn’t had to rely on it much in the UFC. Spivac’s striking, by contrast, is serviceable but not a weapon. He uses it to set up his grappling rather than as a primary threat, and he can be hittable in exchanges. Almeida’s speed and explosiveness could be the difference-maker if the fight stays on the feet for any significant stretch.
Karol Rosa vs Ailin Perez
Prediction: Karol Rosa via Decision
Karol Rosa vs. Ailin Perez is an intriguing matchup that pits Rosa’s polished, well-rounded game against Perez’s gritty, physical style. Rosa comes in as the more technical and experienced fighter, with her defensive grappling and striking fundamentals giving her a clear edge in most scenarios. However, Perez is a wildcard—her raw aggression and ability to control opponents in the clinch and on the mat make her a live dog if she can impose her will.
Rosa’s striking is where she shines. She’s got a clean, technical approach on the feet, using crisp combinations and smart footwork to stay just out of range while landing with volume. Her ability to mix up her attacks—targeting the head, body, and legs—keeps opponents guessing and makes it tough to settle into a rhythm. This striking advantage is amplified by her cardio, as Rosa is the type of fighter who can keep a steady pace for all three rounds without slowing down. If this fight stays standing, it’s hard to see Perez matching Rosa’s output or precision.
Rosa doesn’t panic when pressured, and she’s shown the ability to reverse bad positions or make opponents pay for overcommitting in grappling exchanges. That could be a problem for Perez, who needs to drag this fight into her world to win.
Perez is at her best when she can dictate the pace with her physicality. She’s not the most technical striker, but she’s aggressive and willing to close the distance to initiate clinches or takedown attempts. Once she gets her hands on you, she’s relentless, grinding away with control and short strikes to wear opponents down. If she can get on top, her ground-and-pound is effective, and she’s shown a knack for holding dominant positions. The challenge for Perez is that Rosa isn’t the type of fighter who folds under pressure. If Perez can’t control her for extended periods, she’ll struggle to win rounds, especially given Rosa’s striking edge.
The key to this fight is whether Perez can close the distance and impose her grappling. If she can consistently get Rosa down and keep her there, this fight becomes very winnable for her. But that’s a tall order against someone with Rosa’s defensive tools. On the other hand, if Rosa can keep the fight standing or limit Perez’s control time, she has the skills to pick Perez apart and rack up points on the feet. Rosa’s ability to stay composed and fight her fight gives her the advantage, but Perez’s grit and physicality make her a threat if she can force Rosa into a grind.
Zach Reese vs Sedriques Dumas
Prediction: Zachary Reese inside the distance
On paper, Reese comes in with a reputation as a relentless aggressor, a guy who doesn’t just look to win but to dominate. He fights like he’s trying to leave zero doubt in the judges’ minds—or better yet, avoid their involvement altogether. Dumas, on the other hand, is a creative striker who needs room to breathe, someone who shines when he can dictate the pace and stay a step ahead of his opponent.
Reese’s game revolves around pressure. He’s not the type to feel things out or engage in a drawn-out chess match. From the moment the fight starts, he’s coming forward, looking to close the distance and force his opponent into uncomfortable positions. His grappling is sharp and violent, often leading to quick submissions or ground-and-pound finishes.
Dumas is a flashy, rangy striker with a diverse arsenal of kicks, knees, and elbows. He’s got a fluidity to his stand-up that makes him dangerous at range, especially when opponents give him the respect to work his game. But that’s the key—he needs time and space to operate. When he’s pressured or forced into a dogfight, his defense can get shaky, and he’s shown vulnerabilities in grappling exchanges. Reese is the exact type of fighter who can exploit those gaps. Dumas has tools to keep Reese honest, like intercepting knees and counters, but those require precision and composure under fire—two things that are tough to maintain when Reese is in your face.
What tilts this matchup in Reese’s favor is his ability to suffocate opponents. Dumas doesn’t respond well to chaos, and Reese is a chaos generator. Whether it’s swarming with strikes or dragging the fight to the mat, Reese is relentless. Dumas will need to stay composed, use his range to keep Reese at bay, and punish him for overextending. That’s easier said than done against someone who doesn’t mind eating a shot to close the gap. If Dumas can’t establish his range early, it’s hard to see him keeping Reese off him for long.
Payton Talbott vs Raoni Barcelos
Prediction: Payton Talbott via TKO
Talbott comes in as the rightful favorite, and for good reason. The guy is an absolute pressure machine. He’s got an iron chin that lets him walk through shots most fighters would hesitate against, and his heavy hands mean he’s dangerous in every exchange. Combine that with his strong hips and ability to stuff takedowns or scramble back to his feet, and you’ve got a fighter who’s tailor-made to make life miserable for someone like Barcelos.
Talbott’s style is all about overwhelming his opponents. He doesn’t just pressure for the sake of it—he makes every step forward count. His ability to cut off the cage and force his opponents into uncomfortable spots is a big part of what makes him so dangerous. And once he gets in your face, he’s throwing with intent. Whether it’s combinations in the pocket or body shots to sap your cardio, Talbott is relentless, and that kind of pressure has a way of breaking fighters mentally before it even becomes a physical issue.
That said, Raoni Barcelos is not someone you can overlook. The guy is as high-level as they come, with a well-rounded skill set that can pose problems anywhere the fight goes. On the feet, Barcelos has sharp striking, solid counters, and a knack for finding openings against aggressive fighters. He’s not afraid to stand and trade, and his experience means he knows how to stay composed even when someone like Talbott is trying to swarm him. If Talbott’s pressure doesn’t break Barcelos early, there’s a very real chance Barcelos could start picking him apart as the fight goes on.
In the grappling department, Barcelos is just as dangerous. His jiu-jitsu is elite, and he’s shown time and time again that he can capitalize on small mistakes to turn the tide of a fight. While Talbott’s strong hips and takedown defense will make it tough for Barcelos to dominate on the ground, any lapse in focus could give Barcelos the opening he needs to take control.
This fight ultimately feels like Talbott’s to lose, but the betting angle is where things get tricky. Talbott being a heavy favorite makes him almost unbettable, especially against someone as skilled and experienced as Barcelos. Sports betting is all about finding value, and laying big odds on a fighter going up against someone who can challenge him everywhere isn’t the smartest play. If Talbott’s pressure and power work, he’ll likely grind Barcelos down and get the win. But if Barcelos weathers the storm, his ability to exploit openings and fight smart could turn this into a much closer fight than the odds suggest. This one’s a great test for Talbott, but from a betting perspective, Barcelos might just be the value side.
Ricky Turcios vs Benardo Sopaj
Prediction: Benardo Sopaj inside the distance
Turcios is a scrappy, high-energy fighter who thrives in chaotic exchanges, particularly in grappling scrambles. His ability to keep moving, create scrambles, and avoid prolonged danger on the ground is impressive. However, the problem is getting to those scrambles in the first place because his takedown defense just isn’t where it needs to be. He tends to rely on his ability to recover positions rather than stopping the takedown outright, which could spell disaster against someone as well-rounded and calculated as Sopaj.
Sopaj is a complete fighter who knows how to exploit openings, and Turcios gives him plenty to work with. On the feet, Sopaj’s use of feints and his explosiveness in the pocket make him a dangerous striker. Turcios, on the other hand, has a very open style of striking that leaves him vulnerable. He doesn’t utilize feints effectively, which makes his offense predictable, and he has a bad habit of not bringing his hands back to protect himself after throwing punches. Against a guy like Sopaj, who can close the distance quickly and capitalize on those defensive lapses, that’s a recipe for getting tagged clean and often.
In grappling exchanges, Turcios’ pace and movement are his biggest strengths, but Sopaj is unlikely to get overwhelmed. Sopaj’s ability to mix in his wrestling and control opponents is another layer that Turcios will have to deal with, and given Turcios’ lack of consistent takedown defense, it’s hard to see him keeping the fight where he’s most comfortable. Sopaj doesn’t just shoot blindly for takedowns; he sets them up with his striking and feints, making it even harder for Turcios to predict and react.
Grant Dawson vs Diego Ferreira
Prediction: Diego Ferreira inside the distance
Dawson is the kind of fighter who thrives on breaking his opponents mentally and physically. His ability to chain takedowns, maintain control, and grind out dominant positions is what makes him such a tough puzzle to solve. Once he gets on top, he’s relentless with his pressure, constantly working to advance or land damage, and he’s not afraid to take risks to secure a submission.
The problem for Dawson in this fight is that Ferreira is one of the toughest guys in the lightweight division to implement that kind of game plan against. Ferreira’s takedown defense has been tested against some of the best wrestlers in the UFC, and he’s consistently shown that he can stuff shots, scramble out of bad positions, and even turn grappling exchanges to his advantage. Ferreira’s high-level jiu-jitsu and ability to create scrambles make it unlikely that Dawson will have the kind of sustained control he’s used to.
On the feet, Ferreira has a clear advantage. His striking is more polished, and he’s comfortable trading in the pocket or working from range. Ferreira has a sneaky ability to land power shots when opponents overcommit, which could be a big problem for Dawson if he gets desperate to close the distance. Dawson’s striking has improved over time, but it’s still more of a means to an end—a way to set up his grappling. Ferreira, on the other hand, can hurt you standing and has the cardio to keep throwing volume deep into a fight.
What makes this matchup particularly interesting is Dawson’s effectiveness at sticking to his game plan. He’s a grinder who doesn’t get discouraged if his first few takedown attempts fail. He’ll keep coming, chain his wrestling together, and look for any opening to get the fight to the ground. If he can force Ferreira into a pace that’s uncomfortable or find a way to neutralize Ferreira’s striking, Dawson could make this fight competitive.
That said, Ferreira’s experience and ability to handle high-level wrestlers make him the probable winner here. His proven takedown defense, combined with his striking edge, gives him more paths to victory. If Dawson can’t consistently get the fight to the mat, he’s going to struggle to deal with Ferreira’s output and power on the feet.
Tagir Ulanbekov vs Clayton Carpenter
Prediction: Tagir Ulanbekov via Decision
Carpenter is a problem for anyone at flyweight with his dynamic striking and ability to work effectively both inside and outside of his opponent’s range. He’s got a knack for landing clean shots whether he’s pressuring forward or countering, and his creativity in striking exchanges keeps opponents guessing. On top of that, his grappling is sneaky good. Whether he’s in top position or working off his back, Carpenter knows how to stay active, look for submissions, and create scrambles. That makes him dangerous in close quarters, where he’s always working to gain an edge.
But Ulanbekov isn’t someone who’s going to make it easy for Carpenter to impose his game. Tagir’s striking isn’t flashy, but it’s effective. He’s consistent with his output, and his shots are usually on target, even if they lack the kind of pop or creativity Carpenter brings to the table. What makes Ulanbekov tough to deal with is his composure and ability to stick to a game plan. He doesn’t get rattled, and he knows how to use his striking to set the pace and control the rhythm of the fight.
The grappling exchanges are where this fight could get really interesting. Both guys have strong defensive wrestling, which likely means we won’t see a ton of extended ground exchanges. Carpenter’s ability to scramble and create offense from the bottom is impressive, but Ulanbekov’s positional awareness and ability to shut down those kinds of openings make it unlikely he’ll get caught in a bad spot. On the flip side, Ulanbekov’s wrestling is solid, but Carpenter’s defensive grappling should be good enough to keep him from getting smothered.
With both fighters being so evenly matched in the grappling department, this fight is likely to play out on the feet. That’s where things get really close. Carpenter has the edge in creativity and explosiveness, but Ulanbekov’s consistency and ability to land clean, effective shots make him just as dangerous. It’s going to come down to who can control the exchanges and make the most of their opportunities.
While this fight feels razor-close, the lean is toward Ulanbekov via decision. His ability to stay composed, stick to his fundamentals, and consistently land clean strikes gives him a slight edge in what’s likely to be a competitive striking battle. Carpenter will have his moments, especially with his ability to mix things up, but Ulanbekov’s steady approach and knack for controlling the pace should be enough to edge out a hard-fought win on the scorecards.