Alex Pereira vs Khalil Roundtree
Prediction: Alex Pereira via KO
When looking at Alex Pereira and Khalil Rountree Jr., you’re talking about two of the most dangerous strikers in the light heavyweight division, each with the power to end a fight in a blink. But there’s a clear distinction between their styles and skill levels that could make this a brutal night for one of them.
Alex Pereira is known for his almost mythical knockout power, honed through years of high-level kickboxing. He’s a former Glory Kickboxing champion with a precision and striking IQ that few can match in MMA. Every punch, knee, or kick he throws has a lethal intent, yet it’s delivered with such calm and composure that opponents often don’t realize they’re trapped until it’s too late. His left hook has already become legendary in the sport, having dropped world-class opponents like Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland with a single, perfectly placed shot. Even when he's not in the pocket, he’s got a sniper-like right cross and devastating leg kicks that can break down opponents from a distance. Against Rountree, Pereira’s control of range and ability to seamlessly mix up his strikes will be crucial. He’s also deceptively durable, which makes it even tougher for guys to try to trade shots with him.
Now, Khalil Rountree Jr. is not someone to be taken lightly, especially with how he’s been performing recently. He’s come into his own, looking like a man possessed in his recent fights. His transformation from a tentative counter-striker to an absolute wrecking ball has been one of the most exciting stories in the division. He’s always had power, but now he’s pairing it with a more patient and calculated approach, almost like a predator stalking his prey. His Muay Thai-influenced style is built around crushing leg kicks and vicious elbows, and when he’s on the offensive, he can make opponents crumble under his pressure. We saw him demolish Modestas Bukauskas with one of the nastiest oblique kicks in recent memory and absolutely light up Karl Roberson. He’s on a three-fight win streak and finally looks like the guy everyone was hyping up years ago.
But despite his recent surge, Rountree is still prone to lapses in defensive awareness, and that’s where Pereira will likely capitalize. Khalil’s style, which relies on blitzing forward with raw aggression, can leave him open to counters, especially against a sniper like Pereira. His stance-switching and tendency to overextend on his punches could play right into Pereira’s counter game. Pereira’s ability to set traps and make subtle adjustments will force Rountree to either play it safe or risk walking into something big.
This matchup feels like it’ll be a war until it isn’t. Rountree has the power and explosiveness to give Pereira trouble early, and if he can find success attacking Pereira’s legs or forcing him against the cage, he could absolutely steal a round. But Pereira’s composure under fire and his ability to stay calm when things get chaotic is what sets him apart. He’s not just a brawler—he’s a calculated killer.
Juliana Peña vs Raquel Pennington
Prediction: Raquel Pennington via Decion
Her striking stats are impressive: she lands an average of 4.14 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 52%. Pennington meticulously sets up her offense through effective footwork and movement, allowing her to control the distance while steadily accumulating strikes. She utilizes a forward-pressing style, often forcing her opponents against the cage, where she can unleash further damage. This method limits her opponent’s offensive options and allows Pennington to dominate with volume and control time.
Defensively, Pennington is no slouch either; she absorbs around 3.29 significant strikes per minute, showcasing a striking defense of 60%. Her defensive tactics often involve utilizing her reach to keep opponents at bay while maintaining a poker face during exchanges. By mixing her striking with occasional takedowns—not that she's overly reliant on them—she keeps her opponents guessing and maintains a rhythm that favors her as the fight progresses.
While Pennington excels in striking, she does have moments of carelessness with her grappling. This slight over-commitment could provide an opening for Peña, who is known for her strong grappling and slick submission attempts. Her active guard and skill set mean she can capitalize on any openings Pennington leaves, possibly leading to submission attempts if the fight goes to the ground. Peña’s style thrives on pressure and aggression, which may create chaos that Pennington has to navigate.
However, even if Peña manages to capitalize on Pennington’s occasional grappling lapses early in the fight, the longer the bout goes, the more it favors Pennington. With her exceptional composure and tenacity, Pennington has a proven track record of maintaining her focus in the heat of battle. Her cardio and ability to adjust her game plan mid-fight help her wear down opponents, leading to a late surge that can sway judges in her favor.
Jose Aldo vs Mario Bautista
Prediction: Mario Bautista via TKO
Aldo, a legend of the sport, brought his elite striking down to 135 with him—his boxing has been as crisp as ever, and his striking defense is still among the best in the division. He’s shown that he can hang with some of the most dangerous strikers at bantamweight, using his slick head movement and pinpoint counterpunching to frustrate opponents. But there’s always been one thing about Aldo: his cardio struggles when fights get into that chaotic, high-output territory.
That’s exactly where Bautista thrives. He’s the type of fighter who brings constant pressure, never really giving you a chance to breathe. His pace is relentless, and he’s always looking to throw combinations, mixing in takedowns, clinch work, and keeping up a tempo that breaks opponents down over time. Bautista’s ability to maintain that high pace from the first bell to the last is his biggest weapon against someone like Aldo. While Aldo is dangerous early, if Bautista can force him to fight at a faster clip, that’s where things start slipping in his favor.
Aldo is going to have the technical advantage, especially early on. His counters are fast and precise, and if Bautista doesn’t respect that power, he could find himself getting tagged with some heavy shots. But the problem for Aldo comes once he’s forced to defend and react repeatedly. His defense is solid, but it’s always been reactive rather than proactive. If Bautista can keep throwing volume and push Aldo against the cage or make him work off his back foot, that defensive sharpness starts to fade. The more Aldo has to work, the quicker he starts to tire, and we’ve seen it in the past: Aldo can look like a world-beater in the first couple of rounds, but by the third, his output drops off, and his hands start dropping.
Bautista’s style is tailor-made to exploit that. He doesn’t have to worry about being perfect early on—he just needs to make Aldo work, get in his face, and force him to defend. The more Aldo has to defend, the less he can counter effectively. And once Aldo starts to fade, Bautista’s power and aggression will take over. Bautista isn’t just a pressure fighter; he’s got the ability to finish, and if he sees Aldo slowing down, he’ll start throwing with more conviction and look to swarm Aldo for a TKO.
While Aldo is still a very dangerous striker with incredible skills, this fight is all about Bautista’s ability to drag him into a war of attrition. Aldo’s gas tank has always been his Achilles heel when faced with high-paced fighters, and Bautista is going to be in his face from the start. As long as Bautista can avoid taking too much damage early and keep pushing the tempo, the fight is likely to turn in his favor, setting up a late TKO when Aldo’s defense starts to unravel under the pressure.
Kayla Harrison vs Ketlen Vieira
Prediction: Kayla Harrison inside the distance
Kayla Harrison, a decorated judoka and Olympic gold medalist, brings an impressive grappling pedigree into this bout. With her experience at the highest levels of judo, she has seamlessly transitioned into mixed martial arts, where her grappling skills have become a defining feature of her style. Harrison is known for her seamless ability to take her opponents down, control them on the ground, and look for submissions. Her performance against elite opponents, such as her recent victory against former champion Holly Holm via second-round submission, showcases her ability to implement her grappling effectively and maintain a dominant position in the octagon.
In contrast, Ketlen Vieira possesses a powerful striking arsenal. Known for her tall stance and knockout potential, Vieira can deliver significant strikes and has a strong grappling background herself, holding a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. However, her movement is somewhat limited, which may pose challenges in this matchup. Her striking, while powerful, relies heavily on landing cleanly, and if Harrison can avoid the exchanges and take the fight to the ground, Vieira’s striking prowess may become less relevant.
Harrison's approach will likely involve closing the distance quickly to avoid getting caught by Vieira's power shots. By utilizing her wrestling, she can neutralize the striking, taking Vieira down and controlling the fight on the ground whihch is where she holds the advantage and ability to finish he fight.
Roman Dolidze vs Kevin Holland
Prediction: Kevin Holland via Decision
Kevin Holland, standing at 6'3" with impressive reach, utilizes his distance effectively to keep opponents at bay. His striking game features an unorthodox style, which combines powerful punches with deceptive footwork, enabling him to land strikes from angles that can catch opponents off guard. Holland’s ability to effectively utilize his reach gives him an edge in striking exchanges is what gives him the real advantage in this fight.
On the other hand, Roman Dolidze, known for his striking power and aggressive approach, presents a considerable threat when he lands cleanly. However, the effectiveness of Dolidze's power can be diminished by his relative lack of speed compared to Holland, which may hinder his ability to close the distance and land meaningful strikes consistently.
Additionally, one of the critical elements that could swing the matchup in favor of Holland is the absence of Dolidze’s wrestling application. While Dolidze possesses grappling skills that could potentially be utilized to disrupt Holland’s rhythm, he has not employed these tactics consistently in his fights. This lack of emphasis on wrestling leaves him vulnerable against someone like Holland, who is adept at maintaining distance and can employ defensive strategies to mitigate Dolidze's striking power.
While Dolidze's knockout potential remains a serious concern for Holland, the combination of Holland's speed, reach, and strategic fighting approach is what makes him the rightful favorite. If Holland can utilize his footwork to avoid Dolidze's power strikes and effectively manage distance, he could effectively implement his own game plan. The dynamic between Holland’s striking and movement against Dolidze's power and aggression creates an intriguing narrative for fight fans.
Marina Rodrigguez vs Iasmin lucindo
Prediction: Marina Rodriguez via Decision
Rodriguez brings a wealth of striking experience to the table. She’s fought and beaten some of the top contenders in the division, and her ability to keep the fight standing has been key to her success. She’s got great takedown defense, something that has been tested against strong grapplers, and it’s likely to come into play if Lucindo tries to change levels out of frustration. Rodriguez’s ability to stuff takedowns and immediately return to striking range keeps her opponents on edge, knowing they can’t just rely on wrestling to neutralize her.
On the feet, Rodriguez’s style is all about precision and technique. She’s not the kind of fighter who throws wild shots; instead, she picks her moments and lands with sharp, clean combinations. Her Muay Thai is polished, and she knows how to mix it up with knees, elbows, and kicks, which will be a big factor in keeping Lucindo from closing the distance comfortably. Rodriguez’s timing and ability to control the pace of the fight are likely to frustrate Lucindo, who tends to rely heavily on her power.
Lucindo, on the other hand, has shown that she’s got knockout power and the timing to catch opponents if they leave an opening. She’s aggressive and likes to load up on big punches, which has helped her find success in her UFC run so far. But that’s also where her weakness lies. Lucindo’s striking, while powerful, is predictable. She tends to load up on her shots, throwing with full force but with little variation. This gives a more technical and experienced striker like Rodriguez plenty of time to read those big shots coming. On top of that, Lucindo doesn’t move her head much, so she’s there to be hit in exchanges, especially against someone who can stay calm and pick her apart like Rodriguez.
Rodriguez’s ability to stay composed and use her footwork to avoid those heavy shots is going to be a big factor. While Lucindo is dangerous, especially early on, her lack of head movement and tendency to overcommit on her punches will make her an easier target for someone with the precision and experience of Rodriguez. As the fight goes on, expect Rodriguez to start reading Lucindo’s timing, making adjustments, and landing more frequently as Lucindo gets frustrated and starts swinging even wider.
Ihor Potieria vs Cesar Almeida
Prediction: Cesar Almeida via TKO
Since dropping down to middleweight, Potieria has shown significant improvement, showcasing his striking skills footwork during his most recent fights. Standing at 6'3", his range and reach grant him an ability to manage range effectively, allowing him to implement his striking game when matched against opponents at this weight class. His striking accuracy, powerful punches, and resilience in the octagon make him a threat, particularly due to his recent performance, which shows a maturation in both his technical skills and fight IQ.
On the other hand, Cesar Almeida, a seasoned kickboxer with a background in both kickboxing and mixed martial arts, presents a striking dominance that is hard to ignore. With a professional record of 5 wins and 1 loss, Almeida has built a reputation for his ability to deliver powerful and rapid strikes that can overwhelm his opponents. His impressive striking style is complemented by his exceptional speed and ability to navigate the distance. Almeida’s kickboxing background, marked by 27 (T)KOs and strong combination work, offers him a significant edge in striking exchanges.
While Potieria has undoubtedly looked good since joining the middleweight division, Almeida's striking capabilities are likely to pose challenges for him. Almeida's ability to leverage his speed and pressure means that he will most likely set the tone for the fight. His experience alone means he has all the tools to deal with Potieria has to offer.
Carla Esparza vs Tecia Pennington
Prediction: Carla Esparza via Decision
Esparza, a seasoned grappling expert and a former two-time UFC Women's Strawweight Champion, brings a wealth of experience and a strong wrestling background, while Pennington, known for her speed and striking ability, is determined to make a statement in this bout.
Carla Esparza's fighting style is focused heavily on wrestling. She has faced some of the toughest opponents in the sport, including champions like Zhang Weili and Joanna Jędrzejczyk. Esparza's exposure to elite competition has honed her skills, demonstrating her capability to implement her strengths in the octagon effectively.
However, Tecia Pennington poses a significant challenge for Esparza. Her quick lateral movement can make it difficult for opponents to close the distance and initiate takedowns effectively. She combines elements of karate and taekwondo, showcasing striking techniques that can disrupt Esparza's rhythm and create opportunities for counter-attacks. Pennington's striking accuracy of 47% and an average of 3.59 significant strikes landed per minute provide her with the tools to keep Esparza on the defensive if the fight remains standing.
The crux of this matchup lies in Esparza's ability to utilize her wrestling skills to nullify Pennington's speed. If Esparza can successfully close the distance and bring the fight to the canvas, her grappling could allow her to control the fight. Given Esparza's experience against elite opponents, she has demonstrated a knack for exploiting her opponents' weaknesses and implementing her game plan effectively, as seen in her previous victories. This is particularly crucial in a fight against an opponent like Pennington, who relies heavily on movement and striking.
However, Pennington's speed and footwork will be a constant test for Esparza. If Pennington can avoid the takedown attempts and maintain her distance while utilizing her striking skills, she could create significant problems for Esparza. Keeping the fight on the feet would allow Pennington to leverage her agility and deliver impactful strikes that could swing the judges’ scorecards. The dynamic between these two fighters highlights a classic grappler vs. striker narrative that makes this matchup intriguing.
Stephen Thompson vs Joaquin Buckley
Prediction: Stephen Thompson via Decision
Thompson’s striking is all about timing and staying one step ahead of his opponents. His footwork is ridiculous; the way he bounces in and out of range makes it hard for anyone to really catch him clean. He doesn’t get caught standing still, and he’s constantly shifting angles, so his opponents are left chasing air or running into perfectly timed counters. His kicks are fast and accurate, and when he decides to go, it’s usually with pinpoint precision. It’s that kind of style that’s going to make life tough for Buckley.
Now, Buckley is no slouch on the feet. We’ve seen his power—he’s the guy that can put anyone out with a single shot. He likes to apply pressure and come forward, throwing heavy, wide hooks that are designed to take your head off. But here’s the issue: Buckley relies on that pressure to make his power work. If he can’t cut you off or pin you against the cage, his strikes lose effectiveness. And against a guy like Thompson, that’s a major problem.
Buckley also likes to use his footwork to set up his shots, but it’s not at the same level as Thompson’s. He’ll try to dart in and out, similar to Wonderboy, but his movements are a bit more predictable. The big difference is how wide Buckley throws his punches. Those looping hooks might work against someone standing in front of him, but Thompson’s going to see them coming from a mile away. Wonderboy is all about reading his opponent and reacting to their movements, and with Buckley throwing those big shots, Thompson’s going to pick him apart with counters.
The power of Buckley is always a threat, especially if he can trap Thompson and unload. But Thompson’s speed, his ability to stay out of range, and his technical striking give him a clear edge here. If Buckley can’t land something big early and starts getting frustrated, Thompson’s just going to piece him up from the outside. It’s likely that Thompson uses his movement to frustrate Buckley, avoiding the big shots and landing clean, technical strikes all night.
Ovince Saint Preaux vs Ryan Spann
Preidiction: OSP inside the distance
Spann is known for being a fast starter, coming out in the first round with crazy power, always looking to land that knockout shot early. If he catches you clean in those opening minutes, it’s lights out. But the problem with Spann is that he tends to fade after that first round. He’s got the tools to end a fight quickly, but if you can survive that early storm, he becomes way more vulnerable as the fight goes on.
OSP, on the other hand, has seen it all. He’s been in there with the best, and while he’s no stranger to knockouts either, his experience and grappling are what usually set him apart. OSP knows how to drag fights into deeper waters, where his opponents gas out, and that’s exactly where Spann starts to struggle. OSP is dangerous everywhere—his signature move, the Von Flue choke, is a perfect example of how sneaky his grappling game can be. He’s not just going to rely on striking. He’s going to mix it up, look for clinch opportunities, and eventually find a way to get this fight to the ground, where Spann is out of his element.
Spann’s got that puncher’s chance, no doubt. His knockout power is real, and if he lands something big early, it could be over for OSP. But Spann’s got to get it done in the first round, and OSP is too smart and experienced to let that happen easily. He’s weathered the storm against powerful strikers before, and once Spann’s initial burst fades, OSP will be looking to take over.
What makes OSP dangerous in this fight isn’t just his ability to survive the early rounds, it’s that once Spann slows down, OSP’s grappling and submission game become a huge problem. If OSP can get this fight to the mat, especially in the later rounds, he’ll have a significant advantage. Spann’s ground game isn’t on OSP’s level, and when fatigue sets in, that’s when OSP is most likely to find a submission or dominant control.
Tim Means vs Court Mcgee
Prediction: Tim Means via Decision
Means is a guy who thrives on his technical striking. He’s long, rangy, and knows how to use his reach to pick apart his opponents. His boxing is clean, and he mixes up his strikes beautifully. Whether it’s snapping jabs, body shots, or slicing elbows, Means always brings a full arsenal to the cage. He’s comfortable standing at range, picking you apart with precision, but can also dirty things up in the clinch, throwing knees and elbows that can cut you up or break your rhythm.
Court McGee, on the other hand, is more of a grinder. He’s a dogged wrestler who loves to wear on his opponents. He’s relentless with his takedown attempts, always looking to drag you into deep waters. He might not have the sharpest striking, but his durability and toughness make him a threat. McGee can take punishment, close the distance, and drag the fight into a gritty, ugly place where he excels.
But here’s where Means has the edge. He’s going to be the one dictating the pace on the feet. McGee's striking isn’t as crisp or dangerous, and while he can hang in there and survive exchanges, he’s not going to be able to match Means in the stand-up. Means’ ability to control range, use his footwork, and pick his shots will be key. Every time McGee tries to close the distance, Means will be ready to light him up with something—whether it’s a straight punch or a sneaky elbow when they clinch.
McGee’s best shot is getting this fight to the ground and keeping it there. His grappling is legit, and he’s a nightmare for anyone who lets him take control. Once he gets his wrestling going, it’s like being stuck in quicksand. But Means has solid takedown defense, and even when he’s been put on the mat, he’s not the type to just get stuck. He scrambles well and finds ways to get back up to his feet, where he’ll be in his element.
The key for Means is staying off the cage and avoiding those moments where McGee can grind on him, wear him down, and steal rounds. As long as he can keep his distance, move in and out, and avoid getting dragged into McGee’s kind of fight, it’s hard to see how McGee can win on the feet. McGee’s toughness might carry him through all three rounds, but Means is going to be landing the more impactful shots
Alexander Hernandez vs Austin Hubbard
Prediction: Alexander Hernandez via Decision
When you look at Hernandez, his key strength is his pressure. The guy is a cardio machine who doesn't let up, always looking to overwhelm his opponent with his forward momentum. He’s the type to initiate brawls, throw heavy shots, and then mix in takedown attempts to keep you guessing. That pressure can be intimidating, and it forces fighters into bad positions. You can’t relax for a second, and that’s where Hernandez thrives.
On the other hand, Hubbard’s approach is more technical. He likes to stay on the outside, pick his shots, and keep the fight at his range. He’s not afraid to engage in a striking battle, but he’ll do so more cautiously, relying on his footwork and precision. He’s good at weathering storms and countering effectively, but there’s a tendency for him to get pushed back when his opponents are more aggressive.
That’s where the edge tips toward Hernandez. Hubbard isn’t the kind of fighter who flourishes under heavy pressure. He’s more comfortable when he can dictate the pace, and against Hernandez, that’s going to be tough. Hernandez’s willingness to stand and trade, paired with his constant forward movement, is going to put Hubbard on the back foot. The more Austin gets backed up, the more vulnerable he becomes to Hernandez’s wild flurries and level changes.
Hernandez isn’t just aggressive; he’s got that "dog" in him. He’s willing to go to war. Even if Hubbard starts finding his rhythm with some clean shots, Hernandez will keep coming. This could frustrate Hubbard and force him to make mistakes, especially since Hernandez’s aggression can mask some of his own deficiencies. Sure, Hernandez’s technique might not be as polished, but his pressure creates chaos, and in that chaos, he shines.
Now, while Hernandez’s aggressiveness might lead some to think he could get a finish, I see this one going the distance. Hubbard is durable, and he knows how to survive in tough spots. He’ll get tagged, he’ll get overwhelmed at times, but he’s not going to fold easily. Hernandez, meanwhile, isn’t always the most calculated finisher. He’s got power, but his wild style doesn’t always lead to clean knockouts. It’s more likely that Hernandez racks up damage over three rounds, landing the heavier shots, and controlling the pace to win a decision.